According to some new polls from Hellenthal (5/6-10), we've got some mixed news coming to us out of Alaska. First, the good news:
AK-Sen:
Mark Begich (D): 51
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±6%)
Now, the tricky stuff:
AK-AL:
Sean Parnell (R): 37
Don Young (R-inc): 34
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8
Sean Parnell (R): 43
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 58
Don Young (R-inc): 38
So apparently, it's not the GOP "brand" itself that is suffering in Alaska; it's the corruption of two particular elected officials. Luckily, Stevens has no primary challenge (thus far!). [UPDATE: See below.] As far as Young is concerned . . . I guess we've got to hope he beats Parnell in the primary, or else our chances of taking that House seat are significantly diminished.
UPDATE (James): While the article doesn’t offer any head-to-heads, the same poll tested Stevens’ strength against his GOP primary challenger, Dave Cuddy, and found Stevens ahead by 15%. Weak.
That poll suggests Berkowitz wouldn’t be sunk against Parnell, but undecideds in Alaska will lean Republican so we could really do with Young going nuclear on Parnell in an attempt to defend his seat.
Young pledging to run as an independent might also do it.
Being down 20 points to the Democrat, and down in the primary is bad terrain for a 17-term incumbent. Most discouraging for us is that LeDoux is not splitting the anti-Young vote much.
The Berkowitz-Parnell numbers are most salient to me. While a five-point deficit is not perfect, it still demonstrates that Berkowitz would have an excellent shot against Palin’s proxy Parnell. It would be uphill, but totally winnable.
In terms of AK-Sen, if all of these polls are right, then the narrative is that Uncle Ted is certainly moving down, not up. This is excellent news for Mark Begich.
when Burns refused to retire.
Stevens does have several primary challengers, including Anchorage developer and former state legislator Dave Cuddy, who got 27% against Stevens in 1996:
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska…
If Stevens continues to tank in the polls, the GOP may abandon him.
he’s got a lot of money. it’s not that expensive a state and he needs to follow ernie fletcher’s route to a primary victory. what the hell is he doing?
the parnell/berkowitz numbers look bad. c’mon young! Get moving!
I’m pretty convinced Young wont win his primary. It’s too bad because a 20% is simply ridiculous against an incumbent.
But Stevens should be fine for his primary and well, thats a 7% margin for Begich, very very nice. This race should be #5 on everyone’s list from now on. Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska. Hahahaha, Alaska… Who knew we’d be saying that this cycle?
When do we start the fundraising for Young. Yes we can……. get him through the primary to defeat him in the fall! God… I just felt sleezy… like I was a Republicna again! haha
Gabrielle LeDoux (R) is getting 8% of the vote, that is a good siphon off of the anti-Young crowd.
A plus is that Young has around 350% more Cash than Parnell, he has all that money to attack Parnell, meaning if he doesn’t win he will still weaken Parnell for the General election, hopefully enough for Parnell to lose.
. . . to that effect? Has Young made any comments about “pulling a Lieberman,” so to speak? I hope so!!!!
How ironic it would be were Don Young to lose the primary, and yet in doing so help the Republicans retain a House seat they’ve had for 30+ years. Ironically, Young’s loss would put the chances of the first Democratic House member from Alaska in 3 decades in serious jeopardy.
I think if Young wants to avoid the same fate that fell on Frank Murkowski, Alaska’s disgraced former governor, he would pull out all the stops and spread whatever rumors and lies he needs to to beat Parnell in the primary. This is going to be one to watch.
As for Palin, somewhat of an odd political character. She’ll definitely support John McCain because of the two’s mutual dislike for pork barrel spending, and yet I could see her unofficially endorsing Begich, or (if Parnell is unsuccessful) Ethan Berkowitz. Am I wrong on this one? Or is there some dark sinister secret behind Sarah Palin?
The most intriguing fact in this post has gone mostly unremarked. A nobody named Dave Cuddy, running to the right of Stevens, is only 15 points behind in the Republican primary. Doesn’t anybody think there’s a chance of a big surprise here?